I’ ve been writing a lot of ball recently.
I just wrote about the Minnesota Vikings new GM hire.
I’m in the weeds with it. All I have is sports these days.
John Henry vs. AI.
Anyway, let’s talk about the new draft lottery system the NBA Board of Governors approved last week.
In response to NBA podcasters complaining at each other about tanking within their shallow echo chamber, the NBA, starting next summer, created new rules to deter teams from losing on purpose to improve their odds of drafting a player like Victor Wembayama, who is now in the NBA Finals thanks to the San Antonio Spurs tanking to draft him.
Never again.
Let’s take a look at the new plans:
- The lottery will expand from 14 to 16 teams, and all 16 picks will be drawn via the lottery.
- The bottom three teams by record will receive two lottery balls apiece (5.4% odds at the No. 1 overall pick) and could fall as low as 12th overall in the draft.
- The other seven non-playoff and non-play-in teams (fourth-worst through 10th-worst) will receive three lottery balls apiece (8.1% odds at the No. 1 pick).
- The teams who finish the regular season ranked ninth and 10th in each conference will receive two lottery balls apiece.
- The losers of the No. 7 vs. 8 play-in games will receive one lottery ball apiece (2.7% odds at the No. 1 pick).
- Teams will be prohibited from protecting traded picks in the 12-15 range.
- Teams will be prohibited from winning the No. 1 pick in back-to-back years and from winning top-five picks in three consecutive years.
- The first 16 picks in the second round will be the reverse of the first 16 picks in the first round.
- The format changes will apply to the next three drafts and has a sunset provision, giving the NBA and its teams a chance to scrap it or reform it in 2029.
- The league office will have increased latitude to impose penalties on teams believed to be tanking, including reducing that team’s lottery odds or modifying its draft position.
I understand why NBA commissioner Adam Silver believed all of this was necessary.
Bam Adebayo scored 83 points against the Washington Wizards.
Teams weren’t even pretending to care about the final scores.
Plus, Utah and Washington, traded for All-Stars at the deadline, sent those All-Stars home for the remainder of the season—making the back half of the season a strange mix of teams losing on purpose, teams resting for the playoffs, stars agonizing through narrowly make games-played award requirements, and, like, maybe 3-4 teams trying to win.
That needed to be fixed.
Unfortunately for the NBA, as long as teams continue to see the draft as the most accessible way to acquire championship-caliber talent, teams will continue losing on purpose.
“Flatten” the odds all you want.
Give a team a percentage chance to get a guy like Wemby or even Cade Cunningham, and that team will punt a back-to-back quick.
The only solution is to abolish the draft entirely OR create an NIT NBA tournament where the bottom teams must now WIN a tournament for the top pick.
This new NBA Draft lottery reform nonsense is as good as all “reform” in this country.
So it goes…
What I like about the new NBA Draft Lottery Reform
The rules to keep repeat teams out of the top of the lottery seem fair.
If, after three years with Top 5 picks, a team finds itself in the lottery, it needs to revise its roster-building strategy.
At a certain point, it’s harmful to the players.
Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid and Markelle Fultz are not 3 physically and mentally healthy men.
The Sixers turned Markelle into Reek from Game of Thrones. Never seen anything like it.
We must protect young players from organizations with no direction, intention or just overall bad vibes.
They killed Ja and ZIon, bro. Right before our eyes.
Yea, keep stinky poo poo franchises out of the Top 5.
Learn to develop talent.
Maybe win a fucking trade.
The New York Knicks built a Finals team of winning trades.
Call another GM and make moves, but leave these teenagers alone.
What I don’t like about the new NBA Draft Lottery Reform
Adding MORE teams to the lottery, the 8th seeds in each Conference, defeats the purpose of the draft.
From my understanding, the NBA draft was meant to flow the best incoming talent to the most destitute organizations.
If a team can make the playoffs and still hold a 2.7% chance to win the lottery, then how does the draft help bad teams?
Oftentimes, the 8th seed, or even the 9th and 10th play-in squads, are teams who’ve suffered injuries but ultimately, do not need a Top 3 pick to improve. They just need a time machine to save Jimmy Butler or to go back and not hire Doc Rivers.
So if you’re giving these teams the top picks, then why not just outright remove the draft?
These new rules may backfire. Maybe not. I don’t know anything. I’m not here to bellyache about the rules.
*whispers* just do the draft tournament, yo.
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