Ceiling/Floor: Baker Mayfield to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Welcome to Ceiling/Floor where I dissect trades, signings, firings and hirings in order to determine the best case and worst case scenarios.

Former No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield reached agreement today on a one-year deal worth up to $8.5 million with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, per sources. Mayfield is now in line to be Tom Brady’s successor. pic.twitter.com/2ZldEPxHY8

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 15, 2023

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have signed Baker Mayfield to a 1-year $8.5 million deal.

Ceiling

I can sit here and talk about Baker Mayfield’s 2020 season where he led the Browns to an 11-5 and beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in the first round of the playoffs but that was almost 3 years ago and Baker hasn’t been anywhere near that successful since suffering a shoulder injury in 2021.

The team also just cut Leonard Fournette and Cameron Brate. Don’t be shocked if Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Julio Jones are off this roster by Week 1 too in order to save some dollars in a post-Brady world.

The real best-case scenario for the Buccaneers is Baker Mayfield competing hard for the QB1 job in training camp and losing to former 2nd-round pick out of Florida, Kyle Trask. Using a 2nd round pick on a quarterback is a pretty high investment and I’m sure Tampa Bay would like to know if Trask can actually ball so they can determine who will be running this offense beyond the 2023 season.

The ceiling for Baker Mayfield signing with Tampa Bay is Baker not playing for Tampa Bay. I read an article comparing Baker to Geno Smith. They were attempting to make the case that Baker can do in Tampa what Geno did in Seattle this season. I am here to say that isn’t going to happen.

Floor

Real quick, here’s what Baker Mayfield did in his final start for the Carolina Panthers last season:

21-for-33 passing
196 yards
0 touchdowns
2 interceptions
4 sacks
3.21 yards per attempt

The Panthers lost 3-13 to the Baltimore Ravens. Yes, the Panthers scored a grand total of 3 points in Baker’s last start there. I think Todd Bowles is an exponentially better head coach than Matt Rhule was in Carolina but Baker proved last season that he simply isn’t talented enough to take an offense to a different level.

Baker Mayfield should probably be a backup at this point and the worst-case scenario for the Buccaneers is not treating Baker like a backup and this organization tricking themselves into believing Baker is still that no. 1 overall draft pick who has this unlimited potential because they are going to lose a lotttt of games and coaches are going to lose jobs.

Baker is too little and too overconfident in his athleticism. He thinks he can run around like Kyler Murray but he actually moves more like he’s wearing anchors around his ankles. Perhaps Baker will age into the guy that Geno Smith became last season but he’s not there yet. He’s still one bad game away from throwing an offensive lineman under the bus or posting lame shit on Instagram out of frustration.

If Baker Mayfield starts all 17 games for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this season then something went horribly wrong.